Predicting psychotic disorders 

Professor David Cotter

Predicting that a person is likely to develop a psychotic disorder in later years is a real possibility following a discovery by scientists at RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences.

 

A team of researchers, led by Professor of Molecular Psychiatry David Cotter, found that testing the levels of certain proteins in blood samples can predict whether a person at risk of psychosis is likely to develop a psychotic disorder years later.

 

The researchers analysed blood samples taken from people at clinical high risk of psychosis. These individuals were followed up for several years to see who did and did not develop a psychotic disorder.

 

After assessing the proteins in blood samples and using machine learning to analyse this data, the scientists were able to find patterns of proteins in the early blood samples that could predict who did and did not develop a psychotic disorder at follow-up.

Many of these proteins are involved in inflammation, suggesting that there are early changes in the immune system in people who go on to develop a psychotic disorder. The findings also suggest that it is possible to predict their outcomes using blood samples taken several years in advance.

The most accurate test was based on the ten most predictive proteins. It correctly identified those who would go on to develop a psychotic disorder in 93% of high-risk cases, and it correctly identified those who would not in 80% of cases.

A patent application has been filed, and the research team is working to commercialise this research through licensing or partnering with industry.

Published in JAMA Psychiatry, the research was funded by the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) Project (Project EU-GEI) from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme, by the UK Medical Research Council and by the Irish Health Research Board.